Within the widespread uncertainty regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – these actions create a truly chilling precedent.
The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the recent overnight operation marked its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.
The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and capture its head of state – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – carries even broader implications. This ought to concern everyone.
Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has remarked that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy RodrĂguez would follow US instructions, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner MarĂa Corina Machado as a viable alternative.
However, Ms RodrĂguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the leadership-stricken government are even more hardline.
A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is turning it into a lawless actor.
He is convinced that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.
George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.
Set aside the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will surely embolden further adventurism.
Few believe the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.
The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.
Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but rising medical costs, economic unhappiness and distracting files make foreign conflicts more appealing.
Barely 12 months into his four-year term. World leaders may live to repent if they fail to speak up today, considering the potential next target.
A geospatial analyst with over a decade of experience in terrain modeling and environmental data visualization.
